Global photovoltaic installed capacity to reach 596GW in 2025, with emerging markets performing well

Against the backdrop of global energy transformation, the photovoltaic industry has taken off, and the scale of global photovoltaic installations has continued to grow. TrendForce predicts that global new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 596 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and the growth rate will slow down significantly. The share of the three major mainstream incremental markets in China, Europe and the United States has declined, while emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East have performed well, injecting new impetus into the growth of global photovoltaic installations.

Global new installed capacity to reach 596GW in 2025

According to data from TrendForce, global photovoltaic installed capacity will grow rapidly from 113GW in 2019 to 462GW in 2023, with an average annual compound growth rate of 42.3%. After experiencing high growth in the first five years, it is expected that the growth rate of global new photovoltaic installed capacity will drop sharply from 2025 and enter a stage of adjustment. In 2025, global new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 596 GW, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%.

In terms of market share, the Asia-Pacific market share fell slightly to 61.1%, the Americas market grew to 15.6%, and the market share of Europe and the Middle East and Africa did not change much.

Figure: Forecast of new global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025

Judging from the data on newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the four major regional markets in 2025, the Americas will lead slightly in growth, and Asia Pacific will still lead in growth. In 2025, driven by the two major markets of the United States and Brazil, the Americas will maintain its leading position in growth; the Middle East and Africa's emerging countries are still to be developed, and the growth rate will slow down significantly; Asia Pacific will lead the global photovoltaic market in growth, but the growth rate of installed capacity will slow down under the high base; Europe will steadily increase its growth under the overall goal of coal withdrawal and renewable energy.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installed capacity in global regional markets in 2025

China, Europe and the United States will account for 71.6% of new installed capacity in 2025

With the acceleration of global energy transformation, countries are paying more and more attention to the development of renewable energy. China, Europe and the United States are still the mainstream incremental markets for global photovoltaics. In 2025, new photovoltaic installations accounted for 71.6% of the world's total. However, under the high base effect, the growth rate has gradually slowed down, and the proportion of installed capacity has shown a downward trend. Driven by rigid electricity demand, urgent energy transformation needs, and energy strategic goals, non-Central, European and American regions, photovoltaic demand has grown rapidly, and the proportion of installed capacity has shown an upward trend.

The following will focus on analyzing the development trends of the two major markets of China and the United States.

Figure: Proportion of new PV installed capacity in major countries in 2025

In the Chinese market, centralized photovoltaics are still the main demand, and the incremental market is shifting to industrial and commercial photovoltaics. TrendForce predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 265GW in 2025, an increase of about 1% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate will slow down significantly.

From the perspective of sub-categories, household photovoltaics is limited by insufficient grid capacity and declining economic efficiency, and is expected to remain weak in 2025; industrial and commercial photovoltaics are expected to continue to grow against the backdrop of dual control of energy consumption and special dual control of carbon emissions and rising industrial electricity prices; the installed capacity demand for centralized photovoltaics in the next two years will revolve around large-scale wind and solar base projects, and it will still take a long time to wait for the completion of the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission lines to effectively solve the problem of absorption bottlenecks.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installed capacity in China in 2025

In the US market, Trump 2.0 has caused a temporary fluctuation in US photovoltaic installations, but the long-term high growth trend will not change. TrendForce predicts that in 2025, the new installed capacity of US photovoltaics is expected to reach 60 GW, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the overall growth rate will slow down slightly.

Affected by the mismatch between electricity consumption and supply and demand of power grid facilities, the United States may face a large electricity gap in the future. In the photovoltaic market, although trade barriers and supply chain issues continue to restrict the release of installed capacity demand, under the 12.5GW battery quota, the United States still has the opportunity to import batteries produced in four Southeast Asian countries to meet local terminal demand. Combined with the support of the US IRA subsidy, local production capacity will be released at an accelerated pace.

Figure: Forecast of new installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the United States in 2025

The growth rate of new installations in the four major regional markets slowed down

In the Asia-Pacific market, TrendForce predicts that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Asia-Pacific is expected to reach 364.3 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. China and India will occupy a dominant position. Driven by energy transformation and growing industrial electricity demand in Southeast Asia, the demand for photovoltaic installations will show a high growth trend.

Subsidies for distributed photovoltaics in the Asia-Pacific market are gradually declining, and installed capacity demand is gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to market-driven. Centralized photovoltaics are driven by photovoltaic bidding projects, and the current growth bottleneck lies in the problem of grid absorption.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installations in the Asia-Pacific market in 2025

In the American market, TrendForce predicts that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the Americas is expected to reach 92.8 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The increase in installed capacity will still be dominated by the United States, while Brazil's slowdown in growth will reduce its share.

Distributed photovoltaic power generation in mainstream countries in the Americas still relies on subsidies to drive installed capacity demand. In addition, electricity prices in some countries are high, which is expected to stimulate the demand for self-generated and self-used photovoltaic power generation. Centralized photovoltaic power generation mainly relies on PPA projects to promote it. At present, grid absorption and fiscal pressure in Latin America will be the main obstacles to the future development of the Americas.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installations in the Americas market in 2025

In the European market, TrendForce predicts that Europe's new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 101.5 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with Germany, Spain and the Netherlands ranking in the top three.

Distributed photovoltaics in the European market are mainly driven by subsidy policies, but subsidy policies are still facing a trend of gradual reduction, and centralized photovoltaics rely on government bidding and PPA projects. Although Europe faces problems such as sluggish electricity demand and frequent negative electricity prices, under its overall goals of long-term renewable energy goals and coal withdrawal goals, the demand for photovoltaic installations is still showing a strong growth trend.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installations in the European market in 2025

In terms of the Middle East and Africa market, TrendForce predicts that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the Middle East and Africa market will reach 37.5GW in 2025, an increase of about 3.3% year-on-year. The installed capacity demand will be mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, and emerging incremental markets such as Egypt and Oman have yet to be developed.

At present, the demand for photovoltaic installations in the Middle East and Africa markets is mainly driven by bidding by the government or government-authorized institutions. In recent years, as the prices of photovoltaic modules have continued to fall, private PPA projects have gradually become active in the market due to their relatively high market-based electricity prices.

Figure: Forecast of new photovoltaic installed capacity in the Middle East and Africa markets in 2025

In general, the growth rate of new global photovoltaic installed capacity will slow down significantly in 2025. The growth rate of the three traditional markets in China, Europe and the United States will gradually slow down due to their large size. The non-China, Europe and the United States markets are expected to achieve rapid growth from a low base. Emerging markets will accelerate their rise, and the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity will increase significantly.

The main reasons for the slowdown in the growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity are the insufficient capacity of the power grid and the increasingly prominent problems of wind and solar power consumption; the economic downturn and limited fiscal spending in some regions have led to insufficient implementation of subsidy policies; household photovoltaics in some mainstream countries are facing growth bottlenecks. In the future, industrial, commercial and centralized photovoltaics are expected to become the dominant forces in the market.